Are you economic savvy

 Are you economic savvy?

What Is Economic Forecasting?

Economic forecasting is the process of attempting to predict the future condition of the economy using a combination of important and widely followed indicators.

Economic forecasting involves the building of statistical models with inputs of several key variables, or indicators, typically in an attempt to come up with a future gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Primary economic indicators include inflation, interest rates, industrial production, consumer confidence, worker productivity, retail sales, and unemployment rates.

1.INFLATION

Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in purchasing power occurs can be reflected in the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time. The rise in the general level of prices, often expressed as a percentage, means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.

2.INTEREST RATES

The interest rate is the amount a lender charges a borrower and is a percentage of the principal—the amount loaned. The interest rate on a loan is typically noted on an annual basis known as the annual percentage rate (APR).

An interest rate can also apply to the amount earned at a bank or credit union from a savings account or certificate of deposit (CD). Annual percentage yield (APY) refers to the interest earned on these deposit accounts.

3.IPI

The industrial production index (IPI) is a monthly economic indicator measuring real output in the manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas industries, relative to a base year.

It is published in the middle of every month by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) and reported on by the Conference Board, a member-driven economic think tank. The FRB also releases revisions to previous estimates at the end of every March.

4. CPI

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a survey, administered by The Conference Board, that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are regarding their expected financial situation. The CCI is based on the premise that if consumers are optimistic, they will spend more and stimulate the economy but if they are pessimistic then their spending patterns could lead to an economic slowdown or recession.

5.Laboour Productivity

Labor productivity measures the hourly output of a country's economy. Specifically, it charts the amount of real gross domestic product (GDP) produced by an hour of labor. Growth in labor productivity depends on three main factors: saving and investment in physical capital, new technology, and human capital.

6.Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force without a job. It is a lagging indicator, meaning that it generally rises or falls in the wake of changing economic conditions, rather than anticipating them. When the economy is in poor shape and jobs are scarce, the unemployment rate can be expected to rise. When the economy is growing at a healthy rate and jobs are relatively plentiful, it can be expected to fall.